In the Supplementary Information, we will report the medians of the posterior distributions, but both the medians and the means are shown in this document.
The credible intervals used are 95% CI.
In the function 'mcmc_intervals':
Model M0
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.265 |
0.189 |
5.867 |
6.643 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.594 |
0.605 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.146 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.387 |
0.264 |
0.157 |
1.014 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.043 |
0.007 |
0.031 |
0.059 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.350 |
0.002 |
0.347 |
0.353 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.220 |
0.862 |
0.024 |
1.027 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.123 |
0.001 |
0.121 |
0.125 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.265 |
0.189 |
5.867 |
6.643 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.594 |
0.605 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.146 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.279 |
0.188 |
-0.097 |
0.672 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.141 |
0.189 |
-0.241 |
0.548 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.080 |
0.190 |
-0.306 |
0.480 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.349 |
0.190 |
-0.728 |
0.051 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.100 |
0.189 |
-0.482 |
0.304 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges
In the Supplementary Information.

Model M1
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.238 |
0.188 |
5.831 |
6.614 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.596 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.602 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.149 |
0.002 |
-0.154 |
-0.144 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.113 |
0.018 |
0.084 |
0.153 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.109 |
0.004 |
0.101 |
0.118 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.383 |
0.223 |
0.167 |
0.961 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.314 |
0.001 |
0.311 |
0.317 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.013 |
0.004 |
0.007 |
0.023 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.014 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.197 |
0.368 |
0.028 |
0.923 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.099 |
0.001 |
0.097 |
0.100 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.238 |
0.188 |
5.831 |
6.614 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.596 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.602 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.149 |
0.002 |
-0.154 |
-0.144 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.299 |
0.186 |
-0.075 |
0.699 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.156 |
0.186 |
-0.231 |
0.560 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.049 |
0.187 |
-0.323 |
0.444 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.360 |
0.186 |
-0.734 |
0.040 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.090 |
0.187 |
-0.466 |
0.308 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges
In the Supplementary Information.

Conditional effect of age
In the Supplementary Information.

Provenance intercepts
Table
Mean
| \(P_{ALT}\) |
0.092 |
0.043 |
0.008 |
0.172 |
| \(P_{ARM}\) |
0.124 |
0.044 |
0.036 |
0.211 |
| \(P_{ARN}\) |
-0.087 |
0.035 |
-0.156 |
-0.016 |
| \(P_{BAY}\) |
-0.138 |
0.035 |
-0.208 |
-0.071 |
| \(P_{BON}\) |
-0.041 |
0.043 |
-0.123 |
0.043 |
| \(P_{CAD}\) |
0.070 |
0.041 |
-0.010 |
0.152 |
| \(P_{CAR}\) |
-0.170 |
0.049 |
-0.266 |
-0.072 |
| \(P_{CAS}\) |
0.042 |
0.040 |
-0.036 |
0.122 |
| \(P_{CEN}\) |
0.016 |
0.042 |
-0.067 |
0.099 |
| \(P_{COC}\) |
-0.156 |
0.035 |
-0.226 |
-0.090 |
| \(P_{COM}\) |
0.069 |
0.055 |
-0.038 |
0.179 |
| \(P_{CUE}\) |
-0.178 |
0.032 |
-0.241 |
-0.118 |
| \(P_{HOU}\) |
0.154 |
0.032 |
0.092 |
0.218 |
| \(P_{LEI}\) |
0.035 |
0.033 |
-0.030 |
0.099 |
| \(P_{MAD}\) |
0.030 |
0.082 |
-0.129 |
0.191 |
| \(P_{MIM}\) |
0.003 |
0.036 |
-0.069 |
0.072 |
| \(P_{OLB}\) |
0.041 |
0.033 |
-0.023 |
0.106 |
| \(P_{PET}\) |
0.115 |
0.032 |
0.054 |
0.179 |
| \(P_{PIE}\) |
-0.090 |
0.042 |
-0.172 |
-0.007 |
| \(P_{PLE}\) |
-0.013 |
0.035 |
-0.083 |
0.056 |
| \(P_{PUE}\) |
0.067 |
0.043 |
-0.018 |
0.150 |
| \(P_{QUA}\) |
0.013 |
0.036 |
-0.060 |
0.084 |
| \(P_{SAC}\) |
-0.019 |
0.042 |
-0.104 |
0.062 |
| \(P_{SAL}\) |
-0.190 |
0.038 |
-0.266 |
-0.112 |
| \(P_{SIE}\) |
-0.007 |
0.044 |
-0.096 |
0.078 |
| \(P_{STJ}\) |
0.167 |
0.032 |
0.105 |
0.231 |
| \(P_{VAL}\) |
-0.055 |
0.040 |
-0.131 |
0.022 |
| \(P_{VER}\) |
0.099 |
0.031 |
0.039 |
0.159 |
Figs
Density Ridges

Model M2
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.227 |
0.217 |
5.805 |
6.622 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.596 |
0.003 |
0.591 |
0.601 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.149 |
0.002 |
-0.154 |
-0.144 |
| \(\sigma_{P}\) |
0.108 |
0.018 |
0.078 |
0.149 |
| \(\sigma_{G}\) |
0.109 |
0.005 |
0.100 |
0.118 |
| \(\sigma_{Inter}\) |
0.065 |
0.007 |
0.052 |
0.080 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.411 |
0.265 |
0.172 |
1.099 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.312 |
0.001 |
0.309 |
0.314 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{P}\) |
0.012 |
0.004 |
0.006 |
0.022 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{G}\) |
0.012 |
0.001 |
0.010 |
0.014 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{Inter}\) |
0.004 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
0.006 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.239 |
0.536 |
0.030 |
1.208 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.097 |
0.001 |
0.096 |
0.099 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.227 |
0.217 |
5.805 |
6.622 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.596 |
0.003 |
0.591 |
0.601 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.149 |
0.002 |
-0.154 |
-0.144 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Site intercepts
Tables
Mean
| \(S_{Asturias}\) |
0.314 |
0.215 |
-0.076 |
0.734 |
| \(S_{Bordeaux}\) |
0.159 |
0.215 |
-0.234 |
0.587 |
| \(S_{Caceres}\) |
0.042 |
0.216 |
-0.354 |
0.463 |
| \(S_{Madrid}\) |
-0.371 |
0.216 |
-0.767 |
0.053 |
| \(S_{Portugal}\) |
-0.083 |
0.216 |
-0.481 |
0.351 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Provenance intercepts
ALL
Portugal
Caceres
Madrid
Bordeaux
Asturias
Merging the plots
In the Supplementary Information.

MODEL M7
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.367 |
0.389 |
5.608 |
7.143 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.056 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.161 |
0.081 |
0.075 |
0.365 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.524 |
0.371 |
0.196 |
1.486 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.042 |
0.021 |
0.017 |
0.096 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.044 |
0.028 |
0.016 |
0.106 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.158 |
0.083 |
0.075 |
0.373 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.323 |
0.001 |
0.321 |
0.326 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.032 |
0.052 |
0.006 |
0.133 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.413 |
1.018 |
0.038 |
2.209 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.002 |
0.003 |
0.000 |
0.009 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.003 |
0.008 |
0.000 |
0.011 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.032 |
0.060 |
0.006 |
0.139 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.105 |
0.001 |
0.103 |
0.106 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.367 |
0.389 |
5.608 |
7.143 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.113 |
0.082 |
-0.274 |
0.044 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.060 |
0.076 |
-0.086 |
0.213 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.105 |
0.074 |
-0.249 |
0.046 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.141 |
0.075 |
0.000 |
0.294 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.106 |
0.074 |
-0.035 |
0.259 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
-0.078 |
0.078 |
-0.227 |
0.081 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
0.012 |
0.005 |
0.003 |
0.022 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
0.001 |
0.006 |
-0.012 |
0.014 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
0.019 |
0.018 |
-0.017 |
0.057 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.059 |
0.016 |
0.028 |
0.092 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
0.026 |
0.005 |
0.016 |
0.036 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
0.008 |
0.006 |
-0.004 |
0.020 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.023 |
0.007 |
0.009 |
0.038 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.030 |
0.020 |
-0.006 |
0.073 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.054 |
0.017 |
0.021 |
0.085 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
0.004 |
0.006 |
-0.008 |
0.015 |
Figs

gPEAs
= global Positive effect alleles
Table
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.093 |
0.003 |
0.086 |
0.100 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.100 |
0.005 |
0.091 |
0.109 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.127 |
0.020 |
0.089 |
0.167 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.136 |
0.011 |
0.115 |
0.159 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.114 |
0.003 |
0.108 |
0.121 |
Figs

MODEL M8
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.335 |
0.401 |
5.526 |
7.100 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.002 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.039 |
0.007 |
0.028 |
0.054 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.202 |
0.112 |
0.095 |
0.468 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.548 |
0.401 |
0.203 |
1.605 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.060 |
0.028 |
0.028 |
0.133 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.050 |
0.029 |
0.021 |
0.121 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.207 |
0.100 |
0.100 |
0.456 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.321 |
0.001 |
0.318 |
0.324 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.053 |
0.121 |
0.009 |
0.219 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.461 |
1.261 |
0.041 |
2.575 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.004 |
0.006 |
0.001 |
0.018 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.003 |
0.010 |
0.000 |
0.015 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.053 |
0.076 |
0.010 |
0.208 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.103 |
0.001 |
0.101 |
0.105 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.335 |
0.401 |
5.526 |
7.100 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.593 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.002 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Gene pool intercepts
Table
| \(g_{NA}\) |
-0.168 |
0.097 |
-0.360 |
0.029 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
0.096 |
0.092 |
-0.077 |
0.293 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.089 |
0.091 |
-0.264 |
0.107 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.163 |
0.091 |
-0.009 |
0.361 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.135 |
0.091 |
-0.039 |
0.331 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
-0.111 |
0.093 |
-0.289 |
0.086 |
Figs
MCMC intervals

Density ridges

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
0.010 |
0.005 |
0.000 |
0.020 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
0.007 |
0.006 |
-0.005 |
0.020 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
0.038 |
0.021 |
-0.002 |
0.082 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.095 |
0.016 |
0.063 |
0.126 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
0.022 |
0.005 |
0.012 |
0.031 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
0.000 |
0.006 |
-0.012 |
0.011 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.031 |
0.007 |
0.017 |
0.045 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.025 |
0.021 |
-0.015 |
0.067 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.062 |
0.016 |
0.030 |
0.093 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
-0.009 |
0.006 |
-0.020 |
0.003 |
Figs

rPEAs
Table
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.114 |
0.004 |
0.107 |
0.122 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.127 |
0.005 |
0.116 |
0.137 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.158 |
0.020 |
0.118 |
0.198 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.203 |
0.012 |
0.180 |
0.226 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.132 |
0.004 |
0.125 |
0.139 |
Figs

Model M9
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.286 |
0.207 |
5.867 |
6.710 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.595 |
0.605 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.147 |
| \(\sigma_{g_{j}}\) |
0.171 |
0.094 |
0.083 |
0.389 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.384 |
0.243 |
0.157 |
0.990 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.043 |
0.007 |
0.031 |
0.058 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.338 |
0.001 |
0.335 |
0.340 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{g_{j}}\) |
0.038 |
0.086 |
0.007 |
0.151 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.207 |
0.489 |
0.025 |
0.981 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.114 |
0.001 |
0.112 |
0.116 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.286 |
0.207 |
5.867 |
6.710 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.595 |
0.605 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.147 |
Figs

Gene pool intercepts
Table
Mean
| \(g_{NA}\) |
0.001 |
0.090 |
-0.172 |
0.170 |
| \(g_{C}\) |
-0.127 |
0.083 |
-0.288 |
0.030 |
| \(g_{CS}\) |
-0.150 |
0.083 |
-0.308 |
0.006 |
| \(g_{FA}\) |
0.085 |
0.083 |
-0.072 |
0.241 |
| \(g_{IA}\) |
0.057 |
0.083 |
-0.103 |
0.213 |
| \(g_{SES}\) |
0.149 |
0.086 |
-0.010 |
0.313 |
Figs

MODEL M10
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.204 |
0.328 |
5.543 |
6.879 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.595 |
0.606 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.147 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.043 |
0.007 |
0.031 |
0.059 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.478 |
0.330 |
0.180 |
1.330 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.060 |
0.029 |
0.028 |
0.136 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.095 |
0.053 |
0.042 |
0.224 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.340 |
0.001 |
0.337 |
0.343 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.338 |
0.934 |
0.032 |
1.768 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{max.temp,s}}\) |
0.004 |
0.007 |
0.001 |
0.018 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{min.pre,s}}\) |
0.012 |
0.025 |
0.002 |
0.050 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.116 |
0.001 |
0.114 |
0.118 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.204 |
0.328 |
5.543 |
6.879 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.600 |
0.003 |
0.595 |
0.606 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.152 |
0.003 |
-0.157 |
-0.147 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

Maximum temperature of the warmest month
Table
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Asturias}\) |
-0.046 |
0.005 |
-0.055 |
-0.037 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Bordeaux}\) |
-0.059 |
0.006 |
-0.071 |
-0.047 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Caceres}\) |
-0.040 |
0.021 |
-0.081 |
0.002 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Madrid}\) |
0.014 |
0.016 |
-0.019 |
0.045 |
| \(\beta_{max.temp,Portugal}\) |
-0.034 |
0.004 |
-0.043 |
-0.026 |
Figs

Minimum precipitation of the driest month
Table
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Asturias}\) |
0.045 |
0.004 |
0.037 |
0.054 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Bordeaux}\) |
0.065 |
0.006 |
0.053 |
0.078 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Caceres}\) |
0.056 |
0.021 |
0.014 |
0.098 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Madrid}\) |
0.092 |
0.016 |
0.061 |
0.123 |
| \(\beta_{min.pre,Portugal}\) |
0.037 |
0.004 |
0.028 |
0.045 |
Figs

Both

Model M11
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.425 |
0.729 |
4.973 |
8.011 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.597 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.144 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.041 |
0.007 |
0.030 |
0.057 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.767 |
0.756 |
0.197 |
2.754 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.128 |
0.061 |
0.061 |
0.290 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.339 |
0.002 |
0.336 |
0.342 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
1.160 |
5.228 |
0.039 |
7.583 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{gPEA,s}}\) |
0.020 |
0.026 |
0.004 |
0.084 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.115 |
0.001 |
0.113 |
0.117 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.425 |
0.729 |
4.973 |
8.011 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.597 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.144 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

gPEAs
= global Positive effect alleles
Table
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.077 |
0.003 |
0.070 |
0.083 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.092 |
0.005 |
0.083 |
0.102 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.089 |
0.019 |
0.051 |
0.127 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.105 |
0.012 |
0.081 |
0.128 |
| \(\beta_{gPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.098 |
0.003 |
0.091 |
0.104 |
Figs


Model M12
Main parameters
Standard deviations
Mean
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.595 |
0.529 |
5.667 |
7.671 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
| \(\sigma_{B}\) |
0.040 |
0.007 |
0.029 |
0.055 |
| \(\sigma_{S}\) |
0.708 |
0.560 |
0.200 |
2.161 |
| \(\sigma_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.173 |
0.087 |
0.082 |
0.392 |
| \(\sigma\) |
0.337 |
0.001 |
0.334 |
0.340 |
Figs

Variances
Mean
| \(\sigma^{2}_{B}\) |
0.002 |
0.001 |
0.001 |
0.003 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{S}\) |
0.815 |
2.070 |
0.040 |
4.668 |
| \(\sigma^{2}_{\beta_{rPEA,s}}\) |
0.037 |
0.066 |
0.007 |
0.153 |
| \(\sigma^{2}\) |
0.113 |
0.001 |
0.111 |
0.115 |
| \(\beta_{0}\) |
6.595 |
0.529 |
5.667 |
7.671 |
| \(\beta_{age}\) |
0.598 |
0.003 |
0.592 |
0.603 |
| \(\beta_{age2}\) |
-0.150 |
0.003 |
-0.155 |
-0.145 |
Figs
In the Supplementary Information.

rPEAs
= region-specific Positive effect alleles
Table
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Asturias}\) |
0.095 |
0.004 |
0.087 |
0.103 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Bordeaux}\) |
0.101 |
0.005 |
0.091 |
0.112 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Caceres}\) |
0.127 |
0.021 |
0.087 |
0.169 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Madrid}\) |
0.172 |
0.012 |
0.148 |
0.197 |
| \(\beta_{rPEA,Portugal}\) |
0.113 |
0.004 |
0.105 |
0.120 |
Figs

